Monday, June 27, 2011

ENSO status

IRI has noted that while there is a small chance that La Nina conditions could re-emerge in the coming months, they have effectively declared the record setting 2010/11 La Nina event dead.  We agree with their outlook for generally neutral conditions for the remainder of the year.

The chart below shows the dramatic shift in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) from May into June, where the current value is in the neutral range.  Further, the map from Weather Trends notes the absence of the cold equatorial Pacific Ocean SST anomaly, with warming starting to build in the eastern (Nino 1.2) regions.

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