Wednesday, March 2, 2011

La Nina weakening, but still present

from CommodityWeather:
It looks like the strongest La Nina in recent years is starting to weaken, but we do caution that the prevailing conditions are still strong and the lag until much of the Northern Hemisphere is back to a neutral state may take some time.  When all of the physical factors are considered, most labs are classifying January2011 as the peak of the La Nina, and although the Southern Oscillation Index (30 day SOI shown below) is still in positive phase.  In addition, easterly tradewinds still remain strong.

However, as the plot from the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory below highlights, the subsurface Pacific SSTs are demonstrating a warming trend characterized by the large and expanding subsurface warm water mass between around 140E and 170E (depth between 100m and 200m); as this warm water mass surfaces, it will start to eliminate some of the cold water anomalies present at the surface.

We will have a detailed discussion in our March monthly commodity summary, and what we expect with regards to the transition and its effects on agricultural origins.

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