Feeding the World Along New Silk Roads

The Rising Risks — and Opportunities — Confronting Global Agriculture

In part I of a two-part essay, Michael Ferrari and Parag Khanna examine the dramatic shifts impacting the global agriculture industry from supply chain disruption to the Belt and Road Initiative to new technologies.  In Part II they examine some of the physical risks that will accompany BRI expansion, and offer thoughts on the future agricultural supply chain.

Click here to read Part 1 on Knowledge@Wharton.

Click here to read Part 2 on Knowledge@Wharton.

The full essay can be downloaded here.

O’Reilly AI Conference – notes

Lots of good discussions at the O'Reilly AI Conference today; a few that stood out:
Ruchir Puri, IBM Watson

• I was VERY glad to hear someone from IBM discuss the virtue of domain expertise, something that I discuss often.

Jana Eggers, Nara Logics

• 'Whose black box do you trust?'  good discussion on the rational fears and concerns re:AI.
• Accountability should be higher priority.  Deep fakes, etc...
• If we don't know what is 'true' how do we trust AI with respect to recommendations
• Talk highlights points raised in Puri's talk - using example of computational chemistry, biological extrapolation & neural nets/deep learning.  Need time for exploratory analysis, and also expert systems to guide algo development
• The way our brain works is not about math

Hilary Mason

• Always a pleasure hearing Hilary's thoughts
• You can't build technical product serving people without deep technical understanding
• Again, domain importance echoed.  (goes beyond technology)
• Let's make AI boring
• Shift from 'Big Data' to doing real science in data science (my par)
• What could you do with all of the weather data in the world? DarkSky example.  Great to see weather data, and what we would/could/should do with Wx data in the AI discussion

Overall good talks & discussions throughout the day, but my biggest concern, as it always is when dealing with AI, DS, ML & related topics, is that we think that we can predict better with more precision in all verticals, that we are good/getting better wrt causal inference, and that more/faster/granular data = 'better predictions'.  Need to be mindful that more precision = more risk.  It is perhaps timely that Carlo Ratti of MIT Senseable City Lab giving a talk at a separate conference, quotes Popper, calling for a slightly different approach to AI in the context of cities:

Models still have utility, but we should use as a guide to explore possibilities, and always quantify risk.  The use AI & suite of associated tools/methods should help us prepare for, shape, and better react (the future), rather than predict.   Robust methodologies are better suited for engineered systems that build in protection through redundancy (mimics evolution) rather than solutions dependent upon human behavior.

2019 Columbia Global Energy Summit- afternoon

2019 Columbia Global Energy Summit - notable afternoon highlights

• Afternoon research/solutions session: panel jumps right into climate risk: uncertainty, tail risk, etc
• Uncertainty works in both directions
• v. good discussion on science, in the age of models. (we don't know how much we don't know)
• journalists should be accountable re: how they represent the truth
• Energy, Climate, etc. - important AND inherently interesting problems
• ...role of investors, EM, technology funding
• again, panel highlights the POV of engineers/practitioners...

• Geopolitics session: Bordoff - What does US energy activity mean for the rest of the world?
• scarcity -> abundance shift. benefits expand beyond balance sheets, S/D, etc,...structural change in how markets work
• O'Sullivan poses Q: Is the US going to be tempted to continue to use energy as a geopolitical tool (A: yes)
• O'Sullivan also touches upon energy and political decentralization. hints of connectography via Parag Khanna
• flows into/out of regions, less emphasis on single country origin (similar to agri)

2019 Columbia Global Energy Summit- morning

• EV: 2% of global auto sales last year.  C.Zoi suggests this will change dramatically over next 5-10 yrs; here outlook is a function of demand for charging stations (EVgo).
• Steingart: promising chemistry re: batteries – NiCo, graphite, graphite/Si, pureLi
• Refreshing to hear a politician talk sense re: Green New Deal, Jay Inslee governor of WA
• Inslee raised several good points wrt both science & market potential, although I don’t think he was supportive enough re: nuclear
• EM panel: timely -discussion of Belt&Road Initiative.  (next paper…BRI/sustainability)
• can’t underestimate impact of China.  (2+26…is it working?)
• discussion in India: air pollution as a proxy of economic health? innovation? clean air driver for energy transition.  price & affordability biggest issues…can it be met w clean nrg? linking needs of poor to clean nrg transition US (unsurprisingly) does not understand disparities
• As expected, emerging market panel most interesting. usually the case when practitioners driving discussion
• Chatterjee: power-sector emissions at 1990 levels, market-driven (fact check)
• later than I expected. AI (& blockchain) first mentioned at 11:33 (Goldman)
• Low carbon transition panel (starting to) scratch the surface in innovation and trade

The air we breathe

Before you switch your carnivorous diet to minimize the environmental impact of meat consumption, read this npr article and the referenced nature sustainability publication which highlight a growing externality associated with conventional agriculture.  There has been a lot of talk about the grains/oilseeds/air pollution connection, but not much with actual targets.  The article references a quantitative study which focuses on the life cycle of conventional corn, which includes a discussion with metrics concerning the human costs resulting from pollution, dispersion transport and disruption of biogeochemical cycling.  In my opinion this should be part of a true ESG measure.

More on this to come…ties into some of the broader global themes that Parag & I will be discussing in a forthcoming article.

The New Silk Road and the Emerging Global AgroEconomy

The following is an excerpt from a forthcoming article that I will be publishing with my colleague and collaborator Parag Khanna, author of the new book The Future is Asian. Check back for the full article shortly.

— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

THE NEW SILK ROAD

China’s ‘New Silk Road’, or the more commonly used moniker, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims to transform global trade and establish new commercial partnerships across a broad transect of industrial operating sectors. The backbone of the initiative involves the development and expansion of an ambitious infrastructure network which touches 84 countries, encompassing land and marine shipping and distribution channels, pipelines, power plants and ports, railways and roads, and more, on a scale never seen before. The New Silk Road will become increasingly important as we attempt to figure out how to feed, shelter, and provide sustainable energy to a growing population with a larger appetite for higher value products. As nations determine whether or not they will visibly support or refrain from the initiative, two themes are starting to surface as they pertain to our evolving interconnected economy: (1) countries may not actually have a choice regarding whether or not they will partner with the BRI, and (2) from both a supply and demand perspective, the global weighting of the US may prove to be less significant than it once was. This will begin to challenge long held perceptions and beliefs about the global economy, and models of how and where goods circulate to and from will need a revision.

Regardless of how the Initiative pans out for the participants and the spectators, it is a near certainty that the traditional global supply network will be at least moderately overhauled, resulting in significant ramifications for producers of material and commodity goods. In the razor-thin margin businesses associated with specialty and bulk commodity production and distribution, those players who do not adapt will likely not survive. When we talk of commodities in this discussion, we are generally referring to the agricultural component consisting of anything that is grown, harvested, extracted, processed, and transformed into any one of many end-user products. Generally, these products can be converted for the consumer into either food, fiber, energy, materials or in some cases a form of currency. In this paper, we go deeper into impact of the Belt and Road Initiative as it relates to the potential disruption to all industries affected by the basket of commodity products that comprise the agriculture complex.

The global agricultural commodity network, perhaps more than any other commercial endeavor, can arguably hold the distinctive position sitting at the cornerstone of global economic activity. At the most basic level. everyone needs to be nourished, otherwise they die. While that sounds dire, it is not an exaggeration. But agriculture, and the global agribusiness juggernaut, is more than ‘just’ food. When we take a broader view of agriculture, we start to include all of the suppliers, distributors, processing facilities, fertilizer manufacturers, chemical input providers, forestry companies, pulp plants, solid waste facilities, transportation conglomerates, and many others, into our supply and demand balance sheets. Taking this a step further, many industries that do not immediately come to mind but are largely dependent upon agriculture for raw materials include pharmaceuticals, energy generation, paper manufacturers, pet food makers, the housing and construction sector, ice cream factories, and the cosmetics sector. The point here is not to list every product that includes something that is harvested from the Earth’s soil; rather, it is to demonstrate that as agriculture is the backbone of the economy for many countries and many more companies, changes to the enabling infrastructure which guides how these products are produced, shipped, sold and consumed will likely spill over into just about every sector and subsector of global business.

What does the expansion of the New Silk Road mean for global agriculture stocks and flows? How will the BRI foster or mitigate emerging threats to food supply-side dynamics? Check back to read the full article (to be published shortly) addressing how the BRI will influence the regional and global agricultural commodity trade.

Atmospheric Perils - A Teachable Moment

In the field of applied risk and hazard research, it seems that there is always a teachable moment.

Whether it is the news concerning the devastating aftermath and loss of life from Cyclone Idai  (MODIS image pictured) in Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, severe flooding affecting homes, lives, crops and livestock in Centre-South Braziland the Central US, the impacts of drought on industry in Australia, India and Ukraine, or poor urban air quality in Delhi and Shenzhen, the importance of understanding and preparing for severe events which originate in the atmosphere should be top of mind. And these are just a few of the many types of aero-geophysical occurrences, which can subtly or acutely affect nearly all aspects of modern societal life.  Atmospheric and geophysical perils such as these can exert both positive and negative impacts to human, economic and social systems, ranging in scale from sub-zip code to multiple countries across multiple continents.  But 24-hour news cycles and ubiquitous weather information notwithstanding, there is still a widespread lack of preparedness for these events evident across the domestic and commercial landscape, which typically results in severe unfavorable outcomes.

When we think of the spectrum of potential risks, one of the primary differences with geophysical risks as compared with other types of exposures with ‘on-the-ground’ origins, is that the atmosphere and the ocean (and the sun) do not respect boundaries other than those governed by the principles embedded in fluid dynamics.  Floods and droughts do not stop their progress at country borders.  Severe heat and cold will not respect who does/does not have access to air conditioning or heating.  Solar flares impact entire hemispheres.  Water follows the path of least resistance, with deficits and surpluses more a function of geography than of economics or demographics.  As these categories of atmospheric events are impacting countless lives on a daily basis, directly or indirectly, most people and businesses are not prepared to react once a forcing event is in motion.  Therefore, for those of us involved in the physics-side of extreme event research and risk management, including the associated human impacts, we should use this as an opportunity to communicate the importance of preparedness and early action, as lives, structures and economies are all vulnerable to disruption.

Despite the combined best efforts of scientists, government agencies and the public and private sectors, in any given month of any given year, we can look at an extreme event somewhere on the planet and learn how to better identify, quantify and communicate hazard risk to the relevant stakeholders.  For every life, dollar or structure saved, there is always more that can be done.  More entities within the risk community should look to emulate the efforts of researchers/practitioners such as Dr. Marshall Shepherd, Paul Walsh, and Dr. Ryan Maue (to name a few) as examples of professionals who take the time to explain what we know, and more importantly what we don’t know, regarding the mechanics, the range of potential impacts and uncertainty with respect to pending physical hazards.  In addition to the individuals, we must also rely on the efforts of the underlying technology and communications corporations, including Planet,  Indigo, IBM/The Weather Company, Jupiter Intelligence, and Riskpulse, that are gathering, processing and disseminating models and data in real-time, and putting much of this in the public domain.  We have come a long way over the last two decades, regarding risk identification, communication, and information transfer.  Given the nature and the severity of impending weather, water, climate and geophysical risks against the backdrop of a growing and more interconnected global population, there is still much more to be done.

Contact Atlas Research Innovations to receive a copy of the technical paper associated with this post, and to learn more about how your organization can take advantage of the next wave in physical and financial risk management.

email: info@atlasresearchinnovations.com

Bucknell University: Director, Sustainable Technology Program

Interesting job post at Bucknell: Director, Sustainable Technology Program

The Director of the Sustainable Technology Program at the Bucknell Center for Sustainability and the Environment (BCSE) provides leadership and management of all activities associated with sustainable technology research, programs and related projects. The Director will provide oversight in areas of their expertise as diverse as climate variability and change, renewable energy technologies, climate change mitigation, permaculture, or eco-landscaping, and supports related efforts within the BCSE and the University at large. This role oversees program staff and works collaboratively with the BCSE’s Faculty Director, other Program Directors and BCSE Staff, affiliated Faculty and Faculty Associates. This full-time, 10 month, benefits eligible position reports to the Faculty Director of the BCSE.

Duties and Responsibilities:
Leadership and Vision: Provides intellectual leadership, creativity and innovation to the many interdisciplinary projects and activities defined broadly in terms of climate variability and change, climate change mitigation, renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, biomass, etc.), and permaculture technologies. Works with faculty, staff, and students to develop and implement innovative programs, projects, and activities.

Collaboration: Actively collaborates with other CSE colleagues, faculty, and students to contribute to the continuing development of the sustainable technology program and the growth of the CSE.

Project Management: Provides creative vision for and administers all sustainable technology projects and related activities. Types of activities in this area include, but are not limited to: program visioning, project management, grant development and management, events organizing, logistics, outreach, and meeting facilitation.

Budget Management: Coordinates and administers all sustainable technology program budgets. Types of activities in this area include, but are not limited to: preparing annual budget requests, tracking revenues and expenditures, and grant budget reporting.

Strategic Planning: Coordinates and administers ongoing strategic planning activities related to the sustainable technology program, including but not limited to: convening collaborative visioning exercises, developing/revising strategic planning materials relating to sustainable technology, meetings, monitoring progress of sustainable technology projects/activities, conducting assessment activities, and preparing annual work plans and progress reports on projects/activities.

Grant-making and Extra-mural Funding: Provides intellectual leadership for and coordination of all aspects of grant making related to obtaining financial support for sustainable technology programming from diverse internal and external sources.

Communications: Provides creative vision for all aspects of communications related to sustainable technology, including website design and maintenance, email, blog update, social media outreach messaging, printed materials, among any others. Assures consistency of all communications for the program with CSE strategic plan and Center communications strategy

Professional Networks: Develops and maintains cross-disciplinary professional networks that advance the objectives of the sustainable technology program. Encourages and supports cross-disciplinary interactions among faculty, students, and staff related to sustainable technology. Attends conferences, workshops, and similar events relevant to the objectives of sustainable technology. Serves as a liaison for faculty, staff, and students on related CSE projects and activities. Periodically convenes faculty and staff affiliated with the sustainable technology program.

Teaching and Learning Support: May offer one course (or the equivalent of one credit) in support of the objectives of the sustainable technology program, given approval by relevant academic department(s). Supports development of Integrated Perspectives (IP), Environmental Connections (EVCN), or other courses relevant to the objectives of the sustainable technology program.

Student/Faculty Research and Project Support: Recruits and mentors student interns and researchers for sustainable technology projects and related activities. Provides logistical support for faculty and student projects/activities associated with the sustainable technology program.

Outreach: Represent the CSE Program as needed at diverse university events including but not limited to: university admissions events, alumni events, prospective student visits, as well as other relevant activities/programs. Convenes meetings of internal and external partners and constituents associated with CSE, sustainable technology, etc. such as the Renewable Energy Scholars.

Minimum Qualifications:
• Ph.D. or doctorate degree in a relevant field of study and at least two years of experience in higher education.
• Demonstrated commitment to diversity and inclusiveness.
• Demonstrated interest and broad expertise in climate change, renewable energy technology, sustainable design, with the ability to teach classes and mentor student researchers.
• Demonstrated strong organizational and communication skills.
• Ability to manage complex multi-partner projects in campus and regional settings.

Preferred Qualifications:
• Recognized leadership in societies in their area of specialty (regional, national, etc.)

• Professional licensure in area of specialty (such as E.I.T., P.E., etc.)